Consolidated Climate Change/CO2/Global Warming Thread

Discussion in 'Science' started by hlokk, Feb 12, 2007.

  1. Phido

    Phido Member

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    This is the problem, if you have lots of ice, it reflects sunlight, run away iceage.
    If you loose all ice, you end up with a runaway heatbox.

    You also loose any buffering capacity in the system at the extremes. So temps in run away iceages can become extremely (mars level) cold. Think about a massive volcanic eruption during an ice age, temps can drop so low you will freeze all your CO2 out, and trap it under water ice and then all the plants die off too.

    In a hot box, temps just keep rising, until insects and other polinating species die off, (~55 degrees) and then all your plants start massive die off. The heat is also bad for smaller plants (grasses, bushes etc) that can't handle hot temps and direct sunlight etc. Then your soil goes and things just get worse. Massive die offs reduced O2, and flying things don't like that either, so even cold areas start dying off.

    Once the balance is shifted, it gathers pace and can certainly run away. Venus and Mars are great examples of "how bad can it possibly get"..

    Delicate balance. Anyone who has owned a fish tank, and has issues can attest. Bigger systems afford you more time to make changes, but require bigger efforts and more time to effect changes.

    There are climate deniers ("nothing is happening") and just skeptical people ("more evidence required"). I can understand skeptical, because there is lots we don't know and understand. However, it is quite possible by the time we get to extremely high confidence levels in models and data, it will be far, far too late. Also if you are skeptical, you should support increased funding and awareness of the issues.

    We need to get off coal and fossils fuels. They won't last for ever, and they will limit our quality of life even if CO2 and global warming wasn't an issue. But it is an issue. So is putting dark coloured solar panels over the deserts. So is manufacturing billions of panels with no recycling system, so is nuclear, so is hydro, so geothermal. There is also the other issue that there is probably enough CO2 in the air that we can't stop already extreme increases, and now have to account for 2-4 degree global increases in temperature in our life times and oceans rising 1-2m in our lifetimes.

    Global enviromental catasophy caused by CO2 is just one of the calamities in play. Plastics. Toxins. War (probably over fossil fuels). Economic collapse. Ecological collapse by over fishing, over farming, deforestation are all in play as well. It is likely several are going to coexist in the very near future.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
  2. koss

    koss Member

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    Neither of these scenarios are plausible based on the geological record.

    Greenland's largest glacier is growing, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing for the 3rd. year in a row, prior to that it was retreating for a decade, showing that these things fluctuate, the cause attributed to ocean temperatures not surface warming.
     
  3. Phido

    Phido Member

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    3 years is a blip. The weather patterns change all the time and have great amount of chaos in them. Now I can sound like Malcolm off Jurassic Park.. Heating, uhuh, finds a way.. Oh, ocean warming is the real scary thing, surface warming is the bunny foo foo, it is nothing in comparison to our oceans warming..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_and_icehouse_Earth
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

    We have gone there before, but things take thousands or millions of years.

    In terms of what we don't know, it could fill volumes
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
    Stage 5, 100,000 year, transition, unsplit peak, effect exceeds cause.. There is a nobel prize there if you can crack it all. And this is for periods where we have heaps of historical data of thousands of years and pretty much know exactly what happened, and we still have no idea. So how good can our predictions be?

    The people I talk to who really know this stuff, think we are totally f'd up. Like gone. As in we have already crashed the car, and this is just the split second before our face hits the steering wheel. Pretty dark, and in that case it doesn't matter what we do. I suppose its a bit brighter to believe we can perhaps divert from disaster..
     
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  4. BurningFeetMan

    BurningFeetMan Member

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    This too mirrors my experience from those in the know whom I've spoken with in person.
     
  5. Wangtec

    Wangtec Member

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    Time to build some big arcs and sell tickets
     
  6. JSmithDTV

    JSmithDTV Member

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    Very good actually... doubt this will be cracked at OCAU. ;)

    What is very clear is there has never been such large climate shift and change in 100 years. This correlates to human behaviour since the industrial revolution.


    JSmith
     
  7. koss

    koss Member

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    Over the past 100 years the fire brigade has been present at the majority of house fires, does that correlation mean the fire brigade causes the fires?

    Correlation does not equate to causation.

    If you want to speculate on causes, you then need to back it up with some good science that tests the mechanisms involved, if you get it right, then high precision predictions should be possible. If you get it wrong, then you will have to keep revising predictions over and over. It's reasonable to say the climate is changing, but to speculate on the cause by correlation is just that, it's speculation, not strong science.
     
  8. JSmithDTV

    JSmithDTV Member

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    Not trying to be a dick Koss, but a large majority of scientists that study climate would vehemently disagree... my allegiance is there.


    JSmith
     
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  9. Sunder

    Sunder Member

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    I really should not have looked into this thread. I wouldn't have if I knew Koss was posting. Anything contentious Koss posts in, I know he'll make shit up.

    There is no correlation. Its proven fact that if you shine light through a mixture of gases, the more carbon dioxide it has in it, the warmer it will get. This was proven and accepted scientific fact since John Tyndall discovered it 160 years ago, well before climate change was even thought about.

    What can't be proven and why models need to keep changing is how much this happens on earth, because the earth is not a nice clean static glass jar filled with a predictable content of gasses. The earth is a messy, messy system where a butterfly flapping its wing on one side of the world can cause a hurricane on the other side. And so when small changes in CO2 also causes water vapour (another heat absorbing gas) in the air to increase, the model needs to change. When ice in peripheral areas melt, causing a good white heat reflector to turn dark green, a good heat absorber, the model changes. When permafrost melts, releasing millenia old methane, the model changes.

    There are a lot of things not known about climate change. But to deny the well known and proven facts just proves... well you're ignorant.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2019
  10. MR CHILLED

    MR CHILLED D'oh!

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    The health impacts of Climate Change.....

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/...cts-of-climate-change/11282926?section=health

    I'm certainly going to believe the scientists over a couple of internet randoms.
     
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  11. RobRoySyd

    RobRoySyd Member

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    So true but only in the last few days I've read / watched the latest about "global dimming". That's another effect caused by our dirty combustion of fossil fuels however the particulates have a cooling effect. This affect counters global warming, without it the planet would have warmed much more than it has.

    The easily overlooked problem is it'll take a very long time for natural processes to remove the CO2 we've added to the atmosphere but only days for the particulates to dissipate. In addition particulates are regional, CO2 is global. This seems borne out by the worst polluting countries not warming up as much as those who've done the most to clean up their emissions. This effect was also observed in the days after 9/11 when the grounding of aircraft caused a 2 degC jump in temperatures. We really do seem to have gotten ourselves into a Faustian pact.

    I'm now seeing why the proposal to cool our planet by lacing the stratosphere with millions of tons of sulphur dioxide is gaining traction. That could give us the time to reduce both CO2 and particulate emissions without causing a catastrophe. Based on what's happened after major volcanic eruptions we know the SO2 will be effective for a few years at least. Problem is this plan needs global agreement and management.
     
  12. MR CHILLED

    MR CHILLED D'oh!

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    Thwaites glacier is next on the list for massive concern....

    Thwaites Glacier set to reach ‘tipping point’ that could lead to irreversible melting

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/...g/news-story/a00006b09db958e13dc766d7711ab1e3

     
  13. MR CHILLED

    MR CHILLED D'oh!

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    The biggest problem facing this country is the deniers running it.

    Sir David Attenborough says it’s ‘extraordinary’ powerful figures in Australia are climate sceptics

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/...s/news-story/2ed9c0e0737f3a715fa3908c1b2ec4b2

    Unfortunately last election they didn't and now we have a pack of deniers running the country.

    Appalling situation we could find ourselves in :rolleyes:
     
  14. Sunder

    Sunder Member

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    Just an observation, but I have noticed that climate change protesters seem to be a mix of the extreme and the hypocrites. On one extreme, they are far left everything. Vegan, immigration, socialism, etc. On the other, they drive to protests in their car, and see no irony.

    I've always believe that "If every person swept in front of their house, the government wouldn't need street sweepers". If the government refuses to do anything, then 80ish percent of us who say we want the government to take action, could just take action ourselves.

    I wonder if people have not thought of this, or think that if the government takes action, then they won't be impacted? Perhaps they think that if they switch from coal to renewable by changing their provider, it costs then an eztra 20c/kwh more, but if the government does it, it will be free? Or if they buy an hybrid car, it will cost them 10k more, but if the government subsidises it, its free money to them?

    I dont know the thinking, but it seems odd to me.
     
  15. Perko

    Perko Member

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    Yeah they want the boot stuck into industry from government, but only on things they don't like/use. Whether it's meat/milk/eggs, fossil fuels, whatever.

    I guess the thing to keep sight of is that policy will never reflect their views, the same as it won't reflect the views of climate deniers etc. Governments will mostly use market mechanisms and a carrot approach to remain electable, whether that's going to be enough to do much of anything is the question.
     
  16. RobRoySyd

    RobRoySyd Member

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    It is indeed odd thinking but one that's still too prevalent. More to the point in my mind is those who think this is only a political problem are more misguided than those who deny the problem even exists. For sure our politicians lack the spine to tell their electorates the truth however are the majority able to accept the truth?

    Just a simple example. Of late much is made about Au becoming the world's largest exporter of thermal coal and hence he world's worst contributor to AGW. Digging coal out the ground isn't the problem, burning it is. Perhaps one can take the moral high ground by saying 'it's not out coal being burnt' but that solves nothing.
     
  17. Perko

    Perko Member

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    I don't think anyone said it was "only" a political problem, but given results so far, the idea that some massive grassroots movement is coming outside of niche affluent populations is pretty fanciful.

    I think we're well beyond the point where the majority accept the truth that it's happening, the issue is whether we'll ever reach a point where many of that group will do jack shit if it involves sacrifice, or even minor inconvenience.
     
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  18. Phalanx

    Phalanx Member

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    I wouldn't take those who turn up to protests as normal people. The majority of people in this country believe in climate change and most likely take some action where they can. Personally I never go to those, but I also don't own a car and am looking at installing solar at the moment (I rent, so it's not so straight forward).

    Except not every road is in front of a house, and the actions of a small few can have a wide ranging impact. Industry springs to mind, high energy using industries have sprung up around our coal power stations. If they don't change, are we really having an impact?

    Like electric cars, one big problem isn't just the cost, it's the network for it. I have no idea if I could drive from Melbourne to Sydney with enough charging points along the way, I definitely know there's enough petrol stations though.

    I don't think it has much to do with cost but convenience. Banning plastic bags, for example. When you go to a store and they've already put it in a plastic bag before you even get to talk about it, or when you forgot to bring your cloth ones, it's convenient to just take one.

    However if there's a small price every time you forget, it drives home behaviours. Likewise power supply. Reality is that signing up to a provider who provides "green" energy does absolutely nothing in terms of the wider grid by an individual because it's coming online anyway. We still have a government who flipped their lids when Liddell was closed and aren't doing anything to help transition from coal to solar/wind (they actively work against it). The government controls how fast and quickly solar/wind can be built out too, there's a backlog of proposals waiting approval.

    People bitch and moan about power prices going up but do nothing. So force a change, even if it costs more, they'll grumble about it and do absolutely nothing still. It's not a hard process, compared to trying to create the market situation where 80% of people actually could switch to solar. Because even if 80% of us signed up for using a provider who only supplied green energy, you'd quickly see everything fall apart, not a fast transition. Because they're not building solar panels themselves.
     
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  19. BurningFeetMan

    BurningFeetMan Member

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  20. Tinian

    Tinian Member

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