Crazy video card pricing 2021-2022

a few reports are saying things will significantly improve by the last quarter of 2022. Here is hoping.

 

Are those reports based on Eth mining stopping?

 

no just supply chain issues, nothing referencing demand changing

 

Right... calling it now! GPU Glut in Q3 2022!!

 

stoked.. 3090ti and the samsung g8 monitor for 240hz 4k league of legends

 

nah you'll have to sli that

 

• $5 at todays price, if BTC doubles in a year, that's $5 today is worth double, so it's not 600 days, but 300 days. That is what they bank on. Mine now and aim for future growth in price. If BTC drops, they can always just sell the card for a few hundred less than they paid. Besides, they probably get it direct from the factories for cheap anyway considering they cut out the distributors and would buy in bulk, along with most likely stealing/not paying for electricity in China, seen a few articles on that.
• It will just move from ETH to the next coin, let's not kid ourselves here.
• No gamer is spending $4k USD on a 3090 Ti unless you're rich and have financial freedom
• I went from S3 Verge 2MB to a Voodoo 1 3DFX with a P100, and that card was 500% worth it (glorious NFS2 SE in 3DFX). TNT2 Ultra again worth the upgrade.
• Consoles are getting good enough for even me to switch over to, coming from a guy that's had PCs since 8 years old and going to computer swap meets. Economically it makes far more sense and they can use a keyboard/mouse just fine, we're not back in the NES / Mega Drive era anymore. Have no intention of running 4K anyway, 1440p is where it's at, or 1080p with a good up-scaler to 4K is good enough for me. If a whole console can cost $1k, even $1.5k, why would any normal person spend $5K on a GPU alone, plus another $3k for the rest of the PC. Unless you really really really are into it and that's you pure passion and have no other car hobbies/wife/partner/no other interests in sports/social life/no other bills/you have a large disposable income.. or if you're a miner where you can recoup your money.

 

There are plenty of gamers who can afford a 4k usd 3090ti, a nice car, own a nice house and buy shit for their wife, have you seen how much some people spend on just their keyboard? Anyway, I think you're muddying the waters here a bit, I don't believe anyone would or has suggested that 3090/ti buyers are considered "normal" when it comes to gamers/hardware enthusiasts but they do and will continue to exist, you can tell them they should probably just buy a console instead but they probably have one of those too.

I don't know why these supposed miners who have their pick of the litter direct from the factory would bother with scooping up 3090ti's instead of just sucking up all the lower end stock thats more cost and power efficient.

 

4k aud for a 3090 yeh. chump change.
3090ti for 5k? ....and +100W? jeebus.

got the water block ready?

 

Anyone serious about their 3090 is already running 500W... but yeah it's really a bit of a joke.

 

Let's assume we're talking about ethash here, whether they get rewarded in ETH/BTC. When ethash soon comes to an end, they certainly ain't "selling the card for a few hundred less".

My estimate for Q4 2022, provided The Merge has happened by then, and that RTX 40 Series have come round as well, for 2nd hand used RTX 30 series mining GPUs when there will be hundreds of thousands of them being sold off in bulk on alibaba:

• RTX 3090, est. AUD$1200
• RTX 3080, est. AUD$900
• RTX 3070, est. AUD$600

There won't be tens of thousands of 3090 Ti being sold on alibaba at that time, because not that many would have been purchased for mining, relatively speaking. However, I would be surprised if the 3090 Ti could hold a value of AUD$1500 by the end of this year.

Anyone who is about to spend AUD$5000 on the upcoming 3090 Ti will never recover the ~AUD$3500 in lost-value within 1-2 years, and as Elchupacabraj has rightly said - if we are claiming these large scale miners have direct factory connections, not only would they not choose the 3090 Ti, they would have already had connections since 12+ months ago and had already set up mining farms full of 3070s and 3060Ti's mining.

As for moving from ETH to the next coin, yes, this will happen to a certain extent. However, if the current most-profitable coin is ETH at USD$5 profit a day, and the next most-profitable (Raven currently) being USD$3 a day, you can rest assured that this will drop to < USD$2 a day. It wouldn't surprise me if this is down at < USD$1 a day at the end of the year for the most profitable GPU-mineable coin.

Also, regardless how good your connections are - let's not kid ourselves, money talks. If you have a boatload of people willing to pay USD$4K for a 3090 Ti, there isn't some magic mining farm connection that is big or powerful enough to score them for half that.

 

Throw out your bar heater and just run it flat out and keep your room toasty. My 3080 does that already.

The 3090ti isnt aimed at the common gamer, its aimed at people with disposable incomes, and those that need a large e-peen.

Its just a bit of dick swinging by nvidia to say "look out at our top tier card" and youtubers, reviewers and celebs with money will eat it up when they say "i just want the best"

The mid teir is where the money is for these companies, everything else is probably break even advertising for the tech in the mid tier cards

 

I agree with your post about the 3090Ti not being a miners card, even for the gamer/miner looking to offset cost it's a risky gamble unless you're already comfortable paying WELL over what the thing is "worth".

Interesting predictions, I'm not sure prices will drop quite that much.

My reading of the tea leaves is slightly different.

• Due to ongoing supply chain issues I predict the 4000 series and RDNA3 will still be in short supply in Q4 2022.
• Next gen GPU MSRP will now be adjusted upwards because that seems to be what the market can bear. Our dream of $699 USD 4080s ain't going to happen.
• Demand for the 4000 series will be high - just like with Ampere, so street prices will be higher - much higher.
• Just like the 2080Ti took a nose dive in second hand prices on the 3080 release announcement.... only to bounce back even stronger when the realities of Ampere scarcity became apparent.
• There are thousands of people who have had to compromise on their GPU upgrade, or not upgrade at all, who will be competing in the second hand market to purchase 3090, 3080Ti and 3080s. The big mining farms aren't (<- EDIT, had typed 'are' mistakenly) just going to liquidate, and even if they did, they will bulk sell to another operation, not dribble them onto eBay.
• Not everyone will insta-sell after the merge either, many casual gamer/miners have already collected ROI - so letting their cards sit and continue to earn a passive income (even if reduced after Eth 2.0) may well be more attractive than a quick sale.

I think there will be a honeymoon period where you can either secure a 4000 series or RDNA3 card at close to retail, or buy some second hand gear a "reduced" prices due to panic selling, but then the market will realise that there is still a silicon shortage affecting all industries and they are still not producing enough GPUs to satisfy the masses so prices will creep back up.

 

Last big GPU purchase for me was the GTX Titan... of which I got accused of faking having one on this very forum had to post pics of box and card serial # to prove otherwise. Jeez.

A week or two after I bought the Titan, 980Ti came out... spewing... but it's still the card I currently have.

Still on my Z77 / 3570k / DDR3 build that I haven't touched in ages. And still on Win7.

I'm turning into a dinosaur... I don't want to move on!

 

Epic. Its like spending $50k on an engagement ring. You keeping that lady forever.

 

This is the way.

I pray I will be talking about my current system like this in a good few years time, but my wallet fears new releases.

 

Judging by your current form, the forecast for your wallet is https://www.google.com/search?q=john+travolta+lost+meme+wallet

 

Those prices are not going to happen at all, but I like the optimism. In order for them to be at that price, it would mean the new retail price of a 3080 would need to be about ~$1200.. and they're currently $2100+. The stores/distributors are quick to buy the price up, but they don't drop them. I've been watching the 6700XT pricing, I've lost complete interest...

And those miners won't score them at half price, but they certainly would skip the distributor and wouldn't come with warranty, so I'm confident they would get a decent discount considering they'd be buying pallets of stock at once. Those warehouses don't magically fill up

 

I'm in the boat of not wanting my own prediction to be true because I too am a miner.

However what the used GPU market hasn't yet seen is a mass sell-off of used mining RTX 30 series yet.

Let's not forget when used mining RX570s and 580s hit Alibaba with stock levels of 400-500+ per listing, you could score them for <$100 AUD.

The 8GB models, given the Ethereum DAG size exceeded 4GB, are holding at around $450-$500 value right now.

They will drop right back down to $100 post merge. Only question is by how much the 30 series 2nd hand values will tank.

Ironically how much the value tanks also will finally help paint a picture on just how many cards went straight to mining farms in the last 12 months vs how much demand there was in the PC gaming market.