Falcon 9 / Dragon

Discussion in 'Science' started by MoorKhan, Dec 8, 2010.

  1. Strange1

    Strange1 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    3,289
    Location:
    Sunshine Coast
    That's not how Musk works at all. His method (proven time and time again with every company he is involved with) is to pick a massively unrealistic date and say it loudly and confidently to attract media attention and funding.

    There is no way that 2028 was realistic at all, ever. They are aiming for 2023 (which is still unlikely) for a fly around the moon. So 5 years after that an entire Mars base was meant to be built and supporting people? Not a single piece of equipment in that render has been created yet, so having it built, tested, launched, travelling for 8 months to Mars, landing, assembled and operational by 2028 would be more like something that happens in a movie where all of humanity have to concentrate solely on fleeing Earth because it is going to be hit by a rogue planet.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2018
    MUTMAN and PabloEscobar like this.
  2. Sphinx2000

    Sphinx2000 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2001
    Messages:
    6,784
    Location:
    Brisbane
    As Musk said recently though, no one could have predicted (including himself) how far SpaceX have come in the 10 years since the company had their first flight to orbit to now.
    What will they be able to achieve in the next 10 years?
     
  3. PabloEscobar

    PabloEscobar Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2008
    Messages:
    12,917
    MUTMAN likes this.
  4. elcarter1

    elcarter1 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2007
    Messages:
    510
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Screw you naysayers. ;)

    When I saw a rocket almost land on a boat after going... in.... to..... space I was so very impressed.

    What's been achieved is still well beyond what I thought was possible even by NASA with 10 times the budget it has now.

    I think were in for a hell of a ride, even despite how so hard space is.
     
  5. Sphinx2000

    Sphinx2000 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2001
    Messages:
    6,784
    Location:
    Brisbane
    MUTMAN and aokman like this.
  6. Quadbox

    Quadbox Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    6,129
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Well you'd sure have to say it looks like the ISS is going to be without a crew for a while from ~ late january...
     
    MUTMAN likes this.
  7. aokman

    aokman Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2001
    Messages:
    12,458
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Wish Elon would ride in on a horse and say hey weill get you up next week :lol:
     
  8. RnR

    RnR Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2002
    Messages:
    12,320
    Location:
    Brisbane
    He is no longer allowed on twitter :(
     
  9. aokman

    aokman Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2001
    Messages:
    12,458
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Awwwwwww the world just got boring :upset:
     
  10. Sphinx2000

    Sphinx2000 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2001
    Messages:
    6,784
    Location:
    Brisbane
    He still is, but only via a lawyer (although may only apply to Tesla stuff because they are public)
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018
  11. Quadbox

    Quadbox Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    6,129
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Another possible issue I havent seen mentioned anywhere is that the current progress is NOT docked in the correct place to perform a station reboost, and so the only current way to perform one is with zvezda, assuming there's currently enough fuel on board. I'm not sure if they're actually able to perform an unmanned reboost manouver. So if, say, the station is unmanned from the end of january to late june (which currently looks like the best-case scenario, not the worst-case) there's going to be, what, at least one reboost missed? Anyone know if zvezda can do a ground-controlled reboost entirely unmanned?

    Kinda lucky it's at a higher orbit than it used to be in the shuttle days

    EDIT - Also apparently the engines on zvezda havent even been fired since 2007
     
    MUTMAN likes this.
  12. MUTMAN

    MUTMAN Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    5,798
    Location:
    4109
    What happens if they cant be fired up ?
    Toasted ISS reentry ?
     
  13. aokman

    aokman Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2001
    Messages:
    12,458
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Couldnt they send up an empty SpaceX resupply early and use one to reboost? I guess its not certified though knowing red tape NASA.
     
    MUTMAN likes this.
  14. BlueRaven

    BlueRaven Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,191
    Location:
    Sydney
    Fairly sure the Russians will "get to the bottom of this recent launch failure" and re-approve the Soyuz platform for human spaceflight pretty quickly, or at least Go another unmanned launch for resupply/reboost purposes.
    Given that ISS ressuply and crew transport is pretty much the only thing keeping their space program alive at the moment, but the administration and military still have certain specific interests up there.
    They will want to get this incident squared away and get back to normal operations as quickly as possible I would think. There would be contractual obligations/penalties to consider here, if nothing else.

    All of that being said, such procedures are always going to have a lot of bureaucratic inertia... :Paranoid:
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018
    MUTMAN likes this.
  15. Sphinx2000

    Sphinx2000 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2001
    Messages:
    6,784
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Who knows with all the budget cuts to the Russian space program lately, this is why they only were sending up one cosmonaut this time when it was their turn to send two by the way.

    "Getting to the bottom of this" will probably reveal cost cutting/cutting corners which lead to malfunctions, surprise!
    Once commercial US companies SpaceX/Boeing take over NASA supply and re-man contracts the Russian program will die a quick death unfortunately, which is sad.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2018
    BlueRaven and MUTMAN like this.
  16. Quadbox

    Quadbox Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    6,129
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Nah, they dock at completely the wrong point on the station to make it feasible. You need the thrust to be *something like* down the centre of gravity, which atm means only progress when it's on the far end of the russian segment

    If it were a serious issue it'd be more likely to risk sending up an unmanned soyuz rocket w/ progress and hope it doesnt have a repeat. In fact one thing I've heard bandied about which sounds like a likely compromise solution is they might send up an unmanned soyuz spacecraft to replace the one currently docked, so that they can keep the three guys up there another 200 days. Risk the possibility that there's a systemic problem and not just a one-off failure
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2018
    BlueRaven likes this.
  17. BlueRaven

    BlueRaven Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,191
    Location:
    Sydney
    Cue mainstream media reporting "ISS Astronauts could be 'stranded in space'!!" [omg wow the humanity o wot a disaster click dis link yo]

    I've seen at least one such headline as "suggested content" via chrome on my pixel... think it was newscorp (no surprises there...)

    Sure, it's sad from the point of view of "whelp, there's one less nation actively participating in advancing the cause of space science, at least to the extent that they used to".

    But Putin seems to have made it fairly clear that he's not interested in any of that shit beyond what his military mates need, thus they've been relying on decades-old platforms for, well... decades, with minimal investment into new research in a "nuts and bolts" sense (besides supporting what they already had in orbit e.g. ISS). This is borne out by the fact that a massive chunk of the commercial launch market has gone west, my friend, due to more flexibility and far better pricing in launch services. Soyuz did humanity proud, and to be honest she probably deserves her retirement about now. Better, cheaper, more efficient options now exist, and will be human-rated shortly.

    Regarding the current situation, they've got another 160-odd days on orbit with the current lifeboat before things start getting serious.
    And they can start pushing those "safe on orbit" specs without too much extra danger, to a point. Realistically speaking, they can probably stay up there another year if they really had to.
    Pretty sure somebody will come up with a way to get an Uber up there in that time frame.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2018
  18. Quadbox

    Quadbox Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    6,129
    Location:
    Brisbane
    It's actually a hard*ish* limit on the orbital life of the current soyuz btw. They might be able to string it out by 50%, but I'd be surprised if it'll be okay even that far. The issue is that the soyuz descent module uses hydrogen peroxide monopropellant thrusters for all attitude control, and test peroxide decomposes over time. So beyond a certain point they'd be left entirely without any attitude control at all, including for initial orientation of the capsule. (whilst soyuz can and has done ballistic reentries, to the best of my knowledge they've had the correct initial orientation beforehand. Plus the cosmonauts (and astronauts I think once) were a fair bit worse for wear after landing)

    But yes, there's nothing otherwise stopping them staying up a year, and of course it wasnt *that* long ago that crew were routinely up there with no lifeboat at all. Things changed hugely post columbia naturally
     
    BlueRaven likes this.
  19. PabloEscobar

    PabloEscobar Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2008
    Messages:
    12,917
    Can't they just spin the ISS so the right docking point is facing "Down"?
     
  20. Quadbox

    Quadbox Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    6,129
    Location:
    Brisbane
    No, none of the other docking points point anything like through the centre of gravity. They're at either end of the habitable section pointing at right angles to its longitudinal axis, you'd just spin the station, which would probably Break Things (TM), and certainly wouldnt raise the orbit. If you take a look at where the engines on Zvezda are, and where the end docking port on it is, vs the other russian and american docking ports, you'll see what I mean. Those are the only places on the station designed for orbit raising burns

    (which is also why the two engines on zvezda point out funny at an angle to the axis of the station, so that they can clear the end docking port)
     
    BlueRaven likes this.

Share This Page