New SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant discovered

Discussion in 'Science' started by ernie, Nov 26, 2021.

  1. OP
    OP
    ernie

    ernie Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2002
    Messages:
    16,625
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Nor is there any data on the 49% of the world population that have not received a dose of vaccine at all.

    - Ernie.
     
  2. guy.incogneto

    guy.incogneto Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2007
    Messages:
    6,973
    Location:
    Melbourne
    We're talking about the Australian hospitals being overwhelmed by unvaccinated Australians..

    On that note, more should be done to vaccinate the countries who are in that category. If not for obvious humanity reasons, then for the fact that those sort of situations is where new variants come from and it would be a protection measure.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022
    JSmithDTV and adamsleath like this.
  3. Fireblade

    Fireblade Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    2,386
    Location:
    I can see my house from here
    @PeterHotez and his team are developing a vaccine that will be free to all who need it, with a focus on under developed and developing countries who can't afford it. He's another gem in the piles of bullshit out there.
     
    Zee and guy.incogneto like this.
  4. Recharge

    Recharge Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2001
    Messages:
    11,899
    Location:
    Brisbane
    but they are not only being overwhelmed by them, just more of them.
    and the hospital system in every state has been declining for years by funding shortfalls, or more, increasing costs to litigation from the the same funding instead of having it separate and ever increasing administration costs.

    the numbers vs the cases is TINY. not that the media can help but hype up that fear to try to increase their ever falling market share.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2022 at 12:10 AM
    Zee and guy.incogneto like this.
  5. gdjacobs

    gdjacobs Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    2,805
    Location:
    MB, Canada
    Don't forget to take into account the influence of increased vaccination levels. Anecdotal evidence indicates breakthrough cases inflate the case rate while not contributing significantly to incidents of death and serious illness.

    Would voluntarily unvaccinated be okay? No matter the word we use, people who are unvaccinated (the majority by choice*) disproportionately put pressure on public services.

    * Obviously some people cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons. I also have respect for the consistency of groups that have long held a religious beliefs opposing vaccination and most medical interventions, although I certainly don't agree. The most notable of these are Christian Scientists. Most people who choose not to be vaccinated don't fall into these categories.

    Based on the prevalence of risk factors in the province, the CMO of Ontario Health estimates as many as five per 100000 people would be eligible for medical exemptions. That's 0.005%. Australia may have some demographic differences, but valid medical exemptions are likely of a similar order.
    https://globalnews.ca/news/8245515/...xemptions-seems-high-ontario-medical-officer/
     
    guy.incogneto likes this.
  6. Zee

    Zee Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2002
    Messages:
    11,892
    Location:
    SYD/MNL/SIN/SFO
    This is kinda my point though, there is a lot of good info mixed in with bad info from most (if not all) sources. My trust in the likes of Fauci and big Pharma in general is below zero - but I'd be a fool to think everything they say is designed to mislead.

    One interesting thing I learned from tat interview, was that Omicron affects the throat, whilst previous strains have affected the lungs. I've not heard this anywhere else, and in theory, this should make it very easy to figure out which strain someone has, as a chest X-ray should show pretty much nothing for Omicron. It's info I've not yet had the chance to check, and I will, but I can't see any reason for anyone to lie about such a thing.

    Z...
     
  7. Fireblade

    Fireblade Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2001
    Messages:
    2,386
    Location:
    I can see my house from here
    Omicron being more prevelant in the throat than the lungs is info that's been around for quite some time now.
     
  8. Zee

    Zee Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2002
    Messages:
    11,892
    Location:
    SYD/MNL/SIN/SFO
    And yet... I've not heard a thing about it. Seems like a very easy way to figure out which strain you have - seeing as no one seems to be telling those testing positive which strain they have.

    Z...
     
  9. looktall

    looktall Working Class Doughnut

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2001
    Messages:
    26,742
    I see talk from experts of omicron reaching its peak in Australia.
    Does anyone have a simple explanation for what guides their thinking of when it would peak?

    Also, rather than a peak, would it be more like a plateau?
     
  10. adamsleath

    adamsleath Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2006
    Messages:
    19,473
    Location:
    Sunnybank Q 4109
    it will peak. as there are only so many people to be exposed. in the mostly metro areas of capital cities.
    until another variant appears.
    it's not a very brave prediction. i think it will be a volatile little graph and peter out. but linger at low levels as various more isolated groups come into contact with it.

    no doubt there are some good models around based on known variables. which are exposure rate versus total population at its simplest. and extrapolating (and using a range of quantitative guesses) from what the known cases are versus unknown.

    unknown variable is new variants.



    also another thought comes to mind that when omicron the uber transmissible variant runs its course, a niche for other variants (possibly, not necessarily) will open up again. to exploit available hosts. as well as aging people becoming increasingly vulnerable as their immune systems deteriorate with age. ...fresh hosts for lingering contagion.

    a projection from florida:
    https://epi.ufl.edu/media/epiufledu/covid19-models/Omicron-Report-2022-jan-04-v2.pdf
    from a simple google. cbf ferretting out anything else.
    but their graphs indicate Rapid spread. presumably because it is very transmissible.

    I suspect it wont really explode until school resumes (here) or that will just be part of the current or another spike in the graph.

    as peeps are still being careful. more than the let it RIP advocates are advertising anyway.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2022 at 3:23 PM
  11. Phalanx

    Phalanx Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2001
    Messages:
    6,673
    Location:
    3032
    Likely just going off overseas, it peaked very quickly in the UK and SA. Also "reaching its peak" is a broad enough statement that it pretty much has to be true, does that mean we've hit it? That we're a couple of weeks off it? Hard to be wrong with a statement like that.

    We also know it has to peak, we know the number of people who can be infected is decreasing rapidly with cases this high, a quickly rolling out booster program and first shots for children is decreasing the risk of catching it in the first place and we know the UK and South Africa had quick peaks. The number of active cases has also flattened off in NSW and Vic, meaning the pool of infectious people to spread it has also hit a peak there.

    I'd assume it's going to be a plateau or longish tail because the different states will peak at different times, unlike the UK/SA where it hit hard and all at once.

    edit: words and stuff.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2022 at 4:18 PM
  12. OP
    OP
    ernie

    ernie Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2002
    Messages:
    16,625
    Location:
    Brisbane
    According to the Australian stats, only 1.63million people have had COVID-19. Assuming that the real figure is double that, roughly 90% of the population to go, and you can catch it more than once. The case number stats are terrible, almost useless they are so inaccurate they might as well not publish them and stick to the hospitalization stats.
    NSW-vax-hosp-visualised-final-cropped-corrected-1-600x338.jpg
    Fully vaccinated pass unvaccinated in NSW hospitals.

    - Ernie.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2022 at 7:15 PM
    Zee, BurningFeetMan and adamsleath like this.
  13. hippyhippy

    hippyhippy Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2004
    Messages:
    8,859
    Location:
    Sydney
    In the UK... with about 60% vaxxed... 97% have the t cells.... meaning most people have had the covid.
     
  14. OzRinger

    OzRinger Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2005
    Messages:
    3,227
    I was under the impression, every person who has not had covid can catch it. The vaccination does not stop you getting it nor passing it on.

    There are millions of people in Australia all ready to get it.
     
    Zee likes this.
  15. Phalanx

    Phalanx Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2001
    Messages:
    6,673
    Location:
    3032
    The UK do some really good tracking of protection against symptomatic disease that suggests it works fairly well. 2-4 weeks after the booster there's a 68% drop in the chance of symptomatic virus, decreasing to 58% for 5-9 weeks then 50% from 10 weeks onwards. The first few months of two shots of Pfizer/Moderna still provide pretty good protection too (which is what most Australians are sitting at).

    While not being symptomatic doesn't line up completely with not catching it at all, in previous studies prior to Omicron it largely did (you can see the table for Delta on page 12).

    It's unlikely anyone catching Omicron will catch it again in the next month or so, people have caught different strains and months apart.

    I'd say double is a lowball figure. But remember the "peak" is the high point, not the end of it. If you have a smaller population that can get infected you'll pass the peak quickly. That was my general point, predicting the peak will be over soon is incredibly easy, how long the tail will last for is incredibly hard. I don't think it'll be over as quickly as SA and the UK.

    97% of people aged over the age of 16 have antibodies. But it's been up at that level since July, nothing to do with Omicron. Since then you can see the level of antibodies start to dip in the oldies and bounce back up with the booster program.

    But it's also likely that at least half the population in the UK have had COVID just because they've reported 15 million positive tests and that's definitely a lowballed number.
     
  16. adamsleath

    adamsleath Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2006
    Messages:
    19,473
    Location:
    Sunnybank Q 4109
    actual 'immunity' to covid was pre existing (prior to the outbreaks of 2020). thanks, it is posited, to T-cells. which are also more plentiful typically in younger people (excluding the very young like infants.)

    the binary supposition that most have had covid (been exposed to the real virus) isn't valid

    The "novel" virus hasnt been a problem for 97% of people from day one of the media beatup.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2022 at 8:14 PM
  17. OP
    OP
    ernie

    ernie Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2002
    Messages:
    16,625
    Location:
    Brisbane
    There is overlap in T and B cells from the 4 coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and SARS-CoV-2, so people that have been exposed to the other coronaviruses should do a bit better than those that have not.

    Also, if you have had one of the COVID variant strains, you should do better than someone that has not against new variants. Omicron is a good example, it's not well recognized by the antibodies the vaccines create, because they only looks for the S-protein match, but the antibodies from a prior variant, eg. Delta, will looks for other viral proteins, not just the S-protein, and should find a match against Omicron.

    - Ernie.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2022 at 6:37 AM
    adamsleath likes this.
  18. gdjacobs

    gdjacobs Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    2,805
    Location:
    MB, Canada
    T and B cell response, even SARS-CoV-2 specific T and B cell response, is a fairly green field in immunology research. We do have some studies which show cross reactivity with cells generated by endemic HCoV strains (most particularly HCoV-OC43), but drawing conclusions is likely ill advised at this point.
    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abh1823

    Most of the work is like this -- phenomena suggestive of further avenues for study but far short of an applicable medical strategy. A medical intervention conferring broad based immunity with high efficacy and high persistence would be revolutionary, but we don't have it yet.
     
    wulfy23 and adamsleath like this.
  19. wulfy23

    wulfy23 New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2021
    Messages:
    28
    Location:
    Sydney
    damned if we do, damned if we don't
     
  20. Slug69

    Slug69 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    10,201
    Location:
    Sydney
    NSW is plateauing. ICU numbers appear to be static three days in a row (knowing 65 people died in that period).

    Hospitalisation still climbing but has not increased at a different rate.

    I think they should delay start of school one week so we are well and truly on the backside of the curve.
     

Share This Page

Advertisement: