NVIDIA GeForce RTX 30 Series | RTX 3090 3080 3070 | Discussion

Discussion in 'Video Cards & Monitors' started by Sphinx2000, Sep 1, 2020.

  1. Sunder

    Sunder Member

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    Given that there is no stock on the shelves now, it's not like retailers can pretend it's "old stock". And if there are a handful of returns, they'll probably figure that it's easier to just be up front about it.
     
  2. DarkWorld

    DarkWorld Member

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    And NVidia successfully further creates market segmentation to drive up profits
     
  3. DarkWorld

    DarkWorld Member

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    Lol no why would they? Charge the same price, don't tell anyone. Claim ignorance if people complain.
     
  4. Sunder

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    Huh? This isn't some kind of lottery, there will be a short period of mixed cards, but all new Nvidia cards will be nerfed.

    So unless they are making claims that they still have unrestricted cards, why would anyone pay more for them over LHR cards?

    And I guess you've never worked in retail if you think shrugging your shoulders makes a customer who spent $2-3k on an item who is angry they didn't get what they wanted to quietly go away.
     
  5. DarkWorld

    DarkWorld Member

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    Your point is? Demand for them isn't going away lol. They won't drop the price as long as people will pay.

    And I have worked with retail, and I have dealt with angry customers who's spent 8-9k on a service to not get what they want. Stonewalling them with blank stares and replying ok works.
     
  6. Sunder

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    Really? I wasted my time...
     
  7. DarkWorld

    DarkWorld Member

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    You wasted your time and my time with an incoherent argument.
     
  8. Sunder

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    Let me wind this back to where the argument was still coherent.

    1) Everything coming out of the Nvidia factory is now LHR as far as I understand
    2) Anything coming out of AIBs is a mix of LHR and legacy chips. No way to tell them apart.
    3) There's nothing in shops currently, and most shops have back orders.
    4) For now, if any new stock comes in, it's luck of the draw.
    5) For a short time, retailers can play the ignorance game. They'll probably be harassed by miners asking for date of manufacture, batch numbers, etc. They will probably just shrug their shoulders and make no guarantees.

    If I were to be generous, point 5 is probably where Darkworld thinks the retailer can play forever. But as they say "Never attribute to malice anything that can be sufficiently explained by stupidity", so give him the benefit of the doubt.

    6) Eventually, AIBs, distribution channels, and retail stores will be completely flushed out of legacy, full hashing rate chips. At this point, retailers can't really shrug their shoulders. It's plain and clear to all the only place you're getting legacy chips is used on eBay at an inflated price. Everything new is going to be the new LHR variant.
    7) Miners stop buying from retail stores until it looks like the limiter can be cracked. We don't actually know what percentage of the stock was being soaked up by miners, but if it's as much as speculation has suggested, it'll be significant. Unfortunately, there's still a silicone shortage, and there's now a fair bit of pent up demand. However, economics tells us that for relatively inelastic goods, even a small drop in supply can shoot up prices, and a small drop in demand can drop prices.

    I'm not guaranteeing that prices will drop - As I said it's pretty hopeful that it will. But that's a long way from total denial that the LHR will achieve its goal - that is getting more cards into gamer's hands at closer to RRP. Remember, the first crack didn't happen because someone reverse engineered it. It happened through a mistake on Nvidia's part. reverse engineering takes time, even with financial motive.
     
  9. mesaoz

    mesaoz Member

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    There are plenty of crypto threads already
     
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  10. The Beast

    The Beast Member

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    Nvidia don't have a factory. 3090s aren't LHR (afaik).

    There is a way, it's just not screaming it at you. Time will tell if all AIBs make the model numbers distinct so you can tell before ordering online.

    Until there is a software workaround.

    Miners aren't stopping you getting a card in Australia - they don't have an inside track - there just isn't any stock due to the semi-conductor shortage.
    This isn't going to change significantly with LHR.

    Big miners don't buy from retail - but it is possible they will no longer want to divert cards straight from the factory (due to LHR) and that should see more entering the normal retail chain, however I can't see this being more than a blip on the radar. From everything I've read the shortages will continue.

    Take RDNA2, not a great mining cards for the money - still can't buy them.

    Who has speculated? Sad gamers? You Tube amateurs?

    I think people massively overplay the effects of mining operations on GPU depletion. The biggest mining firms buy something like $30 million worth of cards (for a year) which sounds like a lot (OMG!!!!11!) until you realise the NVidia gaming division (yes, all the Ampere cards) made had a record fourth-quarter revenue of $2.50 billion, up 10 percent from the previous quarter and up 67 percent from a year earlier. Full-year revenue was a record $7.76 billion, up 41 percent.

    That massive $30 million mining GPU order is a measly 0.38% of the total yearly revenue NVidia (gaming div) has generated primarily from GPU sales. Not sure what division the mining specific CMP cards fall under, but with a company full-year revenue of $16.68 billion, (up 53 percent) it's fair to say that even huge orders like this aren't what is making the bulk of their money.
     
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  11. Sunder

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    As I understand it, the bulk of the money Nvidia makes is actually from OEMs like Dell and HP. Hard to separate how much of that was from AI and datacentre products, and how much from laptop and desktop GPUs.

    If we are splitting hairs like this anyway, I am losing interest in the thread. As I said, nobody really knows what contribution mining makes to the shortage, and we probably never will. If prices don't fall after the new LHRs, one side will just claim that there's an ongoing shortage anyway, and it will continue to be an ongoing demand. If it does fall, the one side can easily say the market shortage was finally filled, and it had nothing to do with mining, while the other side will say it's proof of mining's effects.

    It's all pointless speculation anyway, even more so for me. Finished CP2077 a few weeks ago, nd there's currently no other RTX game I want to play.
     
  12. The Beast

    The Beast Member

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    No, it's not.

    As I said $7.76 billion for the Gaming division alone.

     
  13. Djuice

    Djuice Member

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    https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2021/05/18/lhr/

    "NVIDIA has also clarified that AIB partners will be clearly labeling their graphics cards with stickers denoting their "LHR" nature, both in the box and card itself, so that customers can know with utmost certainty what they are actually acquiring - though this only applies to newly-manufactured graphics cards, and not to the ones already in the retail channel"
     
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  14. The Beast

    The Beast Member

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    Pricing is going to be very interesting to watch!

    To my lizard brain it's either:

    A) Miners were genuinely driving demand (and therefore price) though the roof, so the price on LHR cards should return to 'normal'.

    or

    B) Mining wasn't the main reason for the supply/demand mismatch, so LHR cards will continue to be rare and expensive through 2021.
     
  15. PureFire

    PureFire Member

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    or

    C) Miners buy LHR cards regardless, anticipating the vbios/drivers will be hacked. If they cant hack them they then put them on ebay later down the track.
     
  16. jpw007

    jpw007 Member

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    It could, and just here me out, be because of a worldwide shortage due to a reduction in production world-wide due to COVID-19. Compounded by 'unprecedented demand' from a lot of people being stuck at home and spending money on hobbies. Compounded again by significant demand by miners snapping up already reduced supply (at a time of otherwise unusually high demand).

    I mean, I might just be crazy here or something.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2021
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  17. bYrd

    bYrd Member

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    + transistor/silicone chip shortage. I'd say most PC hardware prices are highly jacked up at present
     
  18. raincloudx

    raincloudx Member

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    Looking on the bright side - Mobos, PSUs and Cases are cheap
     
  19. jjjc_93

    jjjc_93 Member

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    The only thing that gives me hope for some stock and pricing normality is looking at what's happening with the 6700xt. Stock still somewhat scarce and prices did get pushed up but you can pretty much grab one at any time for around $1200. The higher end cards are nowhere to be found so I don't expect much improvement there from Nvidia but maybe better 3060ti and 3070 availability without miner interest?
     
  20. dzajroo

    dzajroo Member

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    There is definitely a shortage, no doubt about that, however I believe miners are to blame too...just my personal experience:

    Before January 2021
    • One of my mate was mining with 1 card just for fun
    After January 2021
    • Mate got 12x 3060s and 8x 3080s
    • Other dozen mates are now mining with either one or more 30series cards - these are all guys that barely know how to swap gpu...
    Im not saying this is rule or anything, more pointing out that mining is now more "mainstream" as it used to be, and it does have an impact on already fcked up none-existent stock.
     
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