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When is consumer 10GbE going to happen?

Discussion in 'Networking, Telephony & Internet' started by Smokin Whale, Sep 21, 2014.

  1. caspian

    caspian Member

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    so your position is that there's significant unrealised demand out there, but no commercial company has bothered to satisfy it and make a profit out of doing so, any only you're got the unique insight to perceive this?

    riiiight. :rolleyes:

    I said much the same thing over seven years ago, and that passage of time has proven me correct. it might not take another seven years for things to actually change, but come back to me when you can buy the gear off the shelf at JB Hifi or Harvey normal. that's when it's consumer grade.
     
  2. bcann

    bcann Member

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    i want it, but in my book, it won't happen till laptops and desktops come with it, BUILT IN. i'm not talking prosumer desktop mobo's, but jo average. the idiots that came out with 2.5/5Gbit muddied the fucking water, and in my book slowed down adoption. once you have folk, who buy an average $150-$200 mobo have 10Gbit, it'll spread like wildfire. Until then we'll keep getting threads that go, but mahhhh wifi says its connected at 1000Gbit, why can i only download tha internetz at 10Mbit?
     
  3. phreeky82

    phreeky82 Member

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    A bunch of us are aware, but clearly you're not. You are out of touch of the "power user"/prosumer/what-you-may-call-it space.

    Did a heap of us in here drop many hundreds or thousands to get 10G at home? Yep. Plenty of us. A lot of us having to get gear focused at business/enterprise because manufacturers are behind the 8-ball.

    Mikrotik have made a killing from these consumers. QNAP most definitely (I mean they even sell a bunch of unmanaged 10G gear, who do you think is buying that?). Ubiquiti sell to a lot of consumers too, and the fs.com switches and transceivers I can assure you have heaps of consumer customers too.

    TP-Link have jumped in selling switches and NICs, Netgear are selling switches.

    I don't think these guys will be pulling these products from their range anytime soon.
     
    elvis likes this.
  4. elvis

    elvis Old school old fool

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    My position is I hear folks like you saying it can't be done, and then out of nowhere a mob like FiberStore appear doing it for a fraction of the price of everyone else, and all the fat cats wail and cry that their 1000% markup gravy train suddenly vanished. Oh, and would you look at that, all the enterprise switching mobs are suddenly a fraction of the price and being forced to compete. How fascinating.

    Now, granted, FS isn't "consumer" level yet. But these things are never gradual. It typically takes a small mob willing to bother to upset the apple cart, like they did at the medium/enterprise level.

    Post silicon shortage, I think things will look a lot different for the SMB / enthusiast home user networking markets.
     
  5. caspian

    caspian Member

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    this thread isn't about power users/prosumers. it's about the consumer space. again, when you can but it off the shelf at a mainstream electronics store, it meets that definition. at the moment this is a bunch of propellorheads lamenting that SMB gear costs SMB prices.

    nobody said it can't be done. I said there's no general demand for it to be done. as the last even years have proven quite well.

    what it takes is either prices dropping to the point where consumers can buy them at close to the price of the older tech, or consumers actually having a genuine need for it that they're prepared to put their hands in their pockets for.

    I doubt it. the current silicon shortage has been around for less than a year of the last seven the same old discussion has been going on.
     
  6. elvis

    elvis Old school old fool

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    And in that time we've seen explosive performance changes in consumer level storage and computer interfaces. Networking will absolutely catch up, just like it did last time.
     
  7. caspian

    caspian Member

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    seven years so far. but I'm sure if we wait long enough than can be spun as justification. :rolleyes: I won't hold my breath in the meantime.

    [​IMG]
     
    Pugs likes this.
  8. elvis

    elvis Old school old fool

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    I mean, if there's one thing we can always bet on, it's that technology never changes, never gets commoditised , and never gets cheaper, right?

    I'm typing this message from my 1MHz MOS 6502 powered Apple II with 9600 baud BBS connection, and definitely not a machine that's several thousand times more powerful, no sir.
     
  9. Aetherone

    Aetherone Member

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    Sill less time that Intel insisted that 4 cores and 8 threads was the maximum the average consumer needed. Then a young upstart fired an 8 core shot and things have never been the same.

    Although, that raises an interesting conjunction - for all of those 4c8t years and well into the years that have followed, Intel has crippled their "consumer" chips with fuck all PCIe lanes - making adding faster than 1x PCIe networking AND storage fast enough to flog it an exercise in relative futility. Does twelfth gen change this at all?

    I reckon they've been firing a few well placed shots recently. Hopefully they finally kick off the 10g war.
    I note Synology now have a dual-25g card available - and it's not much more than the 10g version. Will home networking mostly jump the 10g shark and ride the coat-tails of enterprise 25g? Will the rising cost of copper convince users that glass has a future? Will 5g kill the NBN or will Starlink strike the coup de grĂ¢ce?
    ... and is worn on your wrist? :D

    Will Officeworks do? I'll admit that one lonely single 5/2.5/1g port is a bit of a downgrade from the previous generation's 10g, but it's still a small step in the right direction.
    https://www.officeworks.com.au/shop...ighthawk-tri-band-ax12-wifi-6-router-ngrax200
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2021
    elvis likes this.
  10. phreeky82

    phreeky82 Member

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  11. Doc-of-FC

    Doc-of-FC Member

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    rarely do manufacturers ask: what price should I charge?

    instead, it comes back to: What will the market bear?

    you want those extra 2 cores, are you willing to pay a 25-50% premium ?

    businesses care about proffits and shareholders, not you.

    the majority of consumers will vote with their wallets, unless they're the fringe, ike todays uneconomically viable home battery owners, unless they're playing the arbitrage market, however again, these are not the average consumer. caspian is right whether you box huggers like it or not.

    Even if i could land cheap silicon and prototype a 10g multi port switch with 802.3at or equiv for inejection for downstream APs, I'd still price it with a margin, because I need to account for 3 key things, failure rate, logistics and support. To provide these capabilities I need to pay meatbags to punch keys, even if they're in bangalore or the phillapines.

    if you're wanting a cheap 4 port 10g switch, just buy it from an already established supply chain, making support margin on the THOUSANDS of entry level shit they're flogging.

    UI has a 4 port 10G managed layer 2 switch with a single gigabit port to interface with you're existing switch fabric - usw-flex-xg for $299 USD.

    Considering the 25% premium on US to AUD, its great value for the number of 10G devices most people actually have.

    Newer WiFi backhaul will shift the market eventually, however most laptops are x2 and mobiles likely x1, so getting anything over 600-800mbps throughput over wifi is still a while out yet.

    Ask yourself one question, does your mother / grandmother need 10g and you'll have your benchmark consumer indicator.
     
  12. phreeky82

    phreeky82 Member

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    So we're stooping to labelling now? It's funny that you're trying to stereotype us as dinosaurs (box huggers?) and yet you're the one who can't see the demand for something.

    Well I sure hope you're running a simple 10Mb network at home then because that is more than my grandmother needs. But then she also doesn't need a car, so please also get rid of your car/bike. No microwaves allowed either.
     
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  13. Aetherone

    Aetherone Member

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    What an overpriced piece of shit. 4x 10g ports is great, that one lonely GbE is pretty much the power socket unless you like bottlenecking the 1gb segment's access to the 10g. Course, I've seen home users do stupider shit than that.
    There are better options for integrating into the home environment. They'll be even cheaper if you can abandon the heat & power pain of pushing 10g over twisted pairs - ie the Mikrotik CRS305-1G-4S+IN @ $150.

    QNAP are absolutely killing it in this segment. 8x1g + 3x10g unmanaged (because what single switch home user needs that?) QSW-308S for $150 USD. That other $150 buys a lot of DACs, optics, fibre and NICs.
    However, if you want to keep parity with the SOHO fixation on TP cabling, then there's the 2x10 + 4x2.5 QSW-2104-2T @ $170USD ($20 USD cheaper for the SFP+ version), the M408-2C (8x1 + 2x10 + 2xSFP+) for $369USD or the M408-4C (8x1 + 4x10 combo) at $459 USD.

    Accepting that the power required to push 10g over cat-whatever cable is STILL bloody stupid and fibre is a lot tougher than you think opens a whole world of possibilities. Back when this thread started I figured a couple of die-shrinks and general market pressure would see the per-port cost decline and we'd all be happy as Larry.
    NO!
    Instead, fibre has had the decline in cost as speeds have ramped (repeatedly!) while copper has languished at the uninteresting big bulky slow cable back. Copper is dead. Fibre is the future.

    Hmm, that last bit sounds really familiar for some reason???
     
  14. Doc-of-FC

    Doc-of-FC Member

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    wifi 6 is already driving consumer market adoption of 2.5gbe on APs, albeit individual devices still deliver lackluster performance due to x1 and x2 when APs can be x3 or even x4 + LTE subchannel capabilities on 6.

    2.5 will continue to work over the existing structured cabling (cat5e) and 5 likely will also if cabled with CAT6 sometime in the last few years.

    802.3at PSE type 2 will do 60 watts over 4 pairs, so high power consuming APs are still going to be here for a while and they're going to need to be powered in random locations for coverage.

    Fortinet has the FAP-831F - 8x8 indoor AP - capable of 4.8 gbps (ships with a 5gbe port) it requires dual 30W feeds for full functionality (incl usb 3.1 port)

    copper is far from dead, enterprise mobility will drive the higher end and like everything else, 100mbit / gigabit, the bottom feeding consumer market will clean up the waste silicon from the market where there's a buck to be made - unless people continue to work from home and then the market indicators aren't as strong, only delayed due to refresh cycles.

    fast forward to 2024 when the draft standard for 802.11be comes along as we'll be looking at 320mhz spectral bands on the 6Ghz spectrum supporting 16 spacial streams + enhanced QAM, this will be the standard to greenlight poe + 10gbe for the big end of the market and potentially some trickle down into prosumer, however most people would likely be glad with 5be and their usage profile will likely be accomodated by this technology.
     
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  15. Aetherone

    Aetherone Member

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    Sorry, I thought we were talking about the average consumer here. Y'know the 99.99995% of people using the $3 netcomm modem they got from their ISP for free. Why are you bringing up enterprise gear when we can't? :p

    Although I think this comment
    links back to mine. I think we're not seeing much in the way of consumer 10g precisely because enterprise gives virtually no shits about 10g over cat-whatever-copper, thus there's no trickle down waste silicon to be had. Speed is too slow, cables are too short, much too thick and crosstalk sucks.

    Only where something else is needed - power - that fibre can't carry are they interested. Still I expect the market for 25/50/100+G fibre is going to be an order of magnitude or two more than 10g AP feeds. Despite my high hopes, I'm expecting 10g copper will stay a pretty expensive niche for a good while yet. Perhaps 802.11be will change things, but where will fibre be then? 800G? 1T+? Will we be snaffelling superseeded NOS 25g optics off ebay for $9usd each then?

    Sheesh, just noticed SR 100G optics from fs are sub $150 AUD. Nuts. Cards and fibre is still a bit pricy though.

    ALSO: woooo, my FS order is in Melbourne and awaiting courier collection.
    Ebay budget optics have cleared customs in Sydney. Now for the slow step.
    Asus is yet to respond to queries about their shitty card.
     
  16. frankgobbo

    frankgobbo Member

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    My FlyPro SFPs arrived today and I got off my ass and spent the 30 seconds swapping them.

    Before + after shots from the switch. Now, I can't tell if the SFPs are lying about their temperature (they're certainly lying that they're fibre when they're copper) however based on the experience with my other switch where the Mikrotik ones went from too hot to touch to warm, I'm inclined to believe it.

    Before:
    Name Vendor Part Number Revison Date Type Temperature Voltage Tx Bias Tx Power Rx Power
    GARAGE MikroTik S+RJ10 2.16 20-10-20 1m copper 91C 3.118V
    OFFICE MikroTik S+RJ10 2.16 20-10-20 1m copper 92C 3.102V

    After:
    Name Vendor Part Number Revison Date Type Temperature Voltage Tx Bias Tx Power Rx Power
    GARAGE FLYPRO SFP-10GT-MT-30M A0 21-03-30 multi-mode fiber 57C 3.116V 6mA -3.011dBm -3.98dBm
    OFFICE FLYPRO SFP-10GT-MT-30M A0 21-04-09 multi-mode fiber 52C 3.107V 6mA -3.011dBm -3.98dBm

    So, basically a 40 degree drop. That's absolutely insane. The switch itself has gone from 65C to 59C in the cupboard. Both the "before" and "after" temperatures are just with a Citrix session running to work, fairly light use.

    The only thing is I think now the link from my office is flapping... I've noticed it twice (Citrix session times out for a moment). I'll have to keep an eye on that. I have a Google Wifi point plugged into the same switch as my desktop PC, and it fails back to wifi backhaul if the link stops working which is clearly what it's just done (watching a ping session, went from <1ms all pings, dropped a few, then to 4-6ms, dropped a few, back to <1ms). So that's no good if that's what's happening.
     
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  17. Aetherone

    Aetherone Member

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    Temperatures are great but that flapping is a concern. Cable length/quality/rated?
    My Mikrotik switches think the FS 10G-T's are fibre as well.
     
  18. Blinky

    Blinky Member

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    Grrr, mine are somewhere in Sydney. Even the RPi Zero2W is AWOL. :(
     
  19. frankgobbo

    frankgobbo Member

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    Cable quality I think is a very big issue. When we bought this place a year or so ago, it was pre-cabled (from when it was built ~2009; a set of fixed cabling with Foxtel, antenna, phone + data so practically impossible to replace, all cable tied inside the walls) and I couldn't get more than 100mbps on any port back to the central wardrobe. I fixed up the crimping, fluke tester showed 1G no issue (I don't have a 10G tester) but I know it's cat 5e (at best) in the walls.

    This afternoon I replaced the patch lead I had from the socket in the office to the switch with a new one (cat6a rated). In the cupboard where the switch is, it's connected by a 30cm cat6 cable from the socket to switch so not much to replace that side. In the office end it was a 10m/flat "cat 7" cable which I replaced with a 3m one just to cut the total length by 7 metres. Switch estimate is around 12m to the office so if I've got the total length from ~22 to 15 metres then that could be a win.

    So far, so good; the port was up to 43 flaps before I did the swap; 2h later it's still at 43 flaps. I did a test and copied a 60G file from NAS to desktop and it didn't miss a beat; but the remote end of that was on a 1G connection. I will try working the connection hard @ 10G and see what happens, maybe dump a TB or so over it at higher speed.

    Part of me thinks this loops back to the title of this thread; "when is consumer 10gbe going to happen?" .. while it's so finicky about what you feed it, I feel a certain amount is held back simply by manufacturers not wanting to support it, hence the push for 2.5G/5G over existing cabling.. yes, you have to replace all ends of the connection just like 10G it still feels "easier".
     
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  20. Aetherone

    Aetherone Member

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    That's a killer part isn't it. If you're gonna pull new cables through the wall, why not just drag multimode OM4 and 50gig all the things?
    I'm betting getting cat-8 pulled, properly terminated and certified for 40gig operation is a heck of a lot more expensive than OM4.

    If you have suitable devices at each end, just blast it with iperf for an hour. :thumbup:
     

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